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Joshua Israelsohn

The Most Misquoted Man in Electronics Industry History, Part 2

Joshua Israelsohn
3/13/2013 4:35:33 PM
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The misquoting of Gordon Moore
What almost all of those who parrot his assertion fail to acknowledge is that the gains he was anticipating would be coming through improved manufacturing techniques and not because of any real technology breakthroughs. So while it may still be applied to ICs for a while yet it can't be applied to those areas in which new technology must be found to bring about any advances. This especially applies to rechargable batteries.

No matter how much you want something to be true, wishing it were true does not make it true. That is my rebuttal of a different, (JIM), Moore's assertion. He was a sort of engineer who would constantly assert that what he wanted to be true was true, thus creating a whole lot of unfortunate management anticipations.

3/10/2013 12:04:07 AM
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Moore's Law Trumped?
Joshua-this is great stuff.  I like the last chart--it is true that at any given point in time, there are a lot of process nodes in play, and there must be cost tradeoffs.  Makes sense the newest, most dense node might be more expensive when it comes on-line so the sweet spot is always one or more nodes back.

On the mother ship, EE Times, I found this article where some brainy folks at MIT felt compelled to point out there are even better predictors, and boldly stated that something called Wright's Law trumps Moore's Law:

Wright's Law


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